The Mekong - Applications of Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) simulation to the benefits, costs and consequences of water resources development in a large river basin

The world’s tenth largest river in terms of annual flow volume, the Mekong is comparatively undeveloped in terms of its exploitable water resources, so that its hydrological regime remains largely natural and unregulated. However, this is about to change given the scale of water resources schemes proposed over the next two decades. These include over 23 cubic kilometres of reservoir storage behind a cascade of hydropower dams already under construction on the mainstream in Yunnan, China, and the additional hydropower regulation on major tributary systems that is planned in Laos. There are further proposals to divert substantial volumes of flow from the main stream into the water stressed regions of northeast Thailand, while the potential for irrigation expansion, particularly in Cambodia, is considerable.